Singapore - after all the expensive oil angst and the threat of the global economy, it is difficult to see the recent slide otherwise than as a welcome respite.
If it holds, the decline in oil prices would boost discretion to spend consumers, allay the concerns of inflation and possibly strengthening confidence.
But it can also cool demand in the short term.
Fearing further price increases, some US companies have rushed commands and built inventories. Exports while which probably contributed to lift April in China and elsewhere, he can come over commands and future shipments.
China is scheduled to release its April trade data on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Reuters seek increased 29.4% of exports, a reading strong but somewhat milder than jump of 35.8% in March.
Reports last week showed inventories growing U.S. manufacturing and service companies. A sponsor of the Institute of management of purchasing managers survey reported "buy before the increase in costs."
Another said "customers are reconstruction of the inventory safety stock levels and also try to purchase in advance of significant price increases."
US Government data this week can support this anecdotal evidence. Tuesday, a report on inventories is supposed to show an increase of 1.0% for March, although sales are expected to increase even faster, which would facilitate the unmanageable accumulation of stocks concerns.
Thursday brings data on business inventories, economists expect increase of 0.9%.
As long as consumers keep buying, a little extra inventory is not catastrophic. Several retail chains in U.S. sales strong April last week. Economists expect the sales report the details of the Department of Commerce Thursday to show an increase of 0.6 percent for April, which could be a little March.
For forecasts of the IFR for the upcoming week in U.S. economic data, please click on: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/11/05/IFRPV050911.pd
SHORT-TERM DEFICIT?
US trade data for March comes Wednesday and are likely to show the expanded deficit slightly, to $ 47 billion, due in part to the rising costs of oil imports.
Last month China reported a rare deficit for the first quarter, a point that Beijing will probably be all week this strategic and Economic Dialogue to Washington as evidence he takes seriously its commitment to refocus its economy towards domestic demand rather than exports.
But the deficit was largely due to increases in the cost of imports of basic products, changes in Chinese structural step in the economy, so the fall in prices could trim the import charge and reverse the trend.
Chinese Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao, said Friday Beijing was not "deliberately" pursuing a trade surplus.
"It is a mutually beneficial economic relationship, win-win," he said of United States and China.
Trade and the value of the currency of Chinese yuan are regular topics of discussion at the meeting of United States and China and this week will be no different.
Eswar Prasad, an economist who teaches trade policy at Cornell University, said talks on economic policy could soon be "overshadowed by the political calendars in the two countries, which announce a progressive hardening of positions and less margin of manoeuvre on both sides."
Chinese President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao are expected to resign in late 2012, while US President Barack Obama is his re-election in November 2012.
"This makes it unlikely that we will see the movements of any major policy of the bilateral relationship, unless the dictations largely by political circumstances and national economic," said Prasad.
While the figures from a United States and China get attention, another batch of trade data also bears watching. Taiwan publishes its April report Monday. It should provide better understand how the earthquake and tsunami of the Japan are affecting its trading partners.
"Events in the Japan still pose risk down since Taiwan is a substantial amount of capital equipment and parts of high electronic technology of the Japan," Nomura Economist Tomo Kinoshita wrote in a note to clients.
"Disturbances of the network of supply chain in the automotive and electronics sectors are particularly concerned.".
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