WASHINGTON (Reuters) - a retired sharp in oil prices has lent fresh credibility to predictions of officials of the Federal Reserve that the rising prices of energy and raw materials would be a temporary phenomenon.
As this point of view, taken by Ben Bernanke, President himself, gains support, investors can find more tips for this week in the minutes of the meeting of April the Fed that the intention of officials to maintain official rates to record levels low for a while.
The prospect of easy money continues in Washington can help offset concern among investors, already worried about signs of slower economic growth in many countries, that the weekend arrest of the head of the Monetary Fund International still complicate the eurozone debt crisis.
There are many reasons to expect the US Central Bank to leave its monetary policy unchanged for a period after it completes its plan controversial link-purchase 600 billion at the end of June.
On the one hand, despite waves of energy, underlying price pressure on prices and wages growth remained tame. Second, the unemployment rate remains well above the levels considered normal despite recent improvements in the labour market.
In addition, there is much evidence suggesting economic activity is allay. New weekly jobless claims are still well above 400,000 per week, a level above which the unemployment rate is unlikely to go down. Consumer spending seem too, have failed as higher gasoline and food costs bite.
"You cannot say that consumers are maturing." But they spend approximately 6.0% of their total expenditures on energy, "said Carey Leahey, Director General of decision Economics.
"It is a part which is traditionally a marker of recession in the US economy." Investors know that and therefore begin to take account of the possibility of slower growth ahead, "Leahey said.
A survey from the Philadelphia Fed from professional forecasters released Friday saw a more controlled projection of growth of 3.2% this year, compared with estimated growth of 3.5% in gross domestic project in the first quarter. US economic growth softened to a derisory annualized clip of 1.8% in the first three months of 2011.
Even successful U.S., which had been a major beneficiary of the liquidity of Fed generous and rallied most of the year, began to look precarious.
GLOBAL DISTURBANCES
As if national concerns were not enough, policymakers see also much reason to worry when they look around the world.
Europe is mired in a debt crisis that has dragged more than a year and shows signs of worsening, with rampant speculation that the Greece may have to restructure its debts.
Concerns with respect to the capacity of policy-makers to deal with the crisis is likely to develop after the arrest of clash of the IMF Chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn in New York on weekends.
Counsel for Strauss-Kahn said he will not be pleaded guilty to charges of sexual assault and said IMF remains operational. But a Greek official said he now would probably be a delay in a rescue of the European Union and the IMF for Athens in which Strauss-Kahn has been closely involved.
A crisis of leadership in Fund worry especially EU countries, account required central role to Strauss-Kahn in bailouts for the Iceland, Hungary, Greece, Ireland and the Portugal.
"The chances are the successor will not be a European and you won't want to rebalance the priorities of the IMF from its massive commitment in Europe", said Jean Pisani-Ferry, Director of the economic reflection of Bruegel.
Euro-zone finance ministers will discuss the debt crisis of Greece Monday this week. Before the arrest of Strauss-Kahn, German officials said no decision will be taken before a mission of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the IMF releases findings on the progress of the reform of the Greece efforts.
Senior officials in Germany and Greece have categorically rejected the possibility that the Greece would abandon the euro, despite rumblings among some analysts that such an approach could be useful in fact the European State of the South at Bay.
Inflation in the euro area should have increased by 2.8% in the year to April, according to a report due on Monday which should maintain pressure on the European Central Bank to continue a push towards higher interest rates that began last month.
In the Earth - and tsunami-hit earthquake in the Japan, the monetary authorities have already said that the economy is probably in recession, depriving the global growth of yet another key motor at a time when some fear a renewed global industrial slowdown.
China, for its part, made a concerted effort to limit inflation after years of enhanced economic growth, leaving investors on constant monitoring to the next possible tightening in the form of reserve requirements.
This combination of negative factors from many corners of the world could begin to the tooth of U.S. manufacturing, which had been a bright spot in the recovery so far. Two surveys of the activity of the regional plant in Philadelphia and New York Federal Reserve banks are planned for this week.
(Reports of Pedro Nicolaci da Costa.) (Editing by Dan Grebler and William Schomberg)
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