Monday, May 2, 2011

Sell in May and disappear? Step so fast (Reuters)

NEW YORK (Reuters) - major stock indices have reached multi-year record but Wall Street does not appear to be running of steam - not immediately.


A robust corporate profits and the promise of the Federal Reserve to keep cheap liquidity have fueled the Nasdaq and a maximum of 10 years and led index Dow Jones and S & P at their highest level since 2008.


"We see clear signs of overbought conditions, but there is still lots of optimism, especially after the S & P has broken well above the range 1340." The next ceiling is not really up to that 1 400 level, "said Stephen Massocca, Director General of Wedbush Morgan in San Francisco.


In may, a month seasonal low stocks, index Dow Jones and Nasdaq posted their best monthly performance since December. Friday closing bell, the & S P 500 was 8.4% for the year.


Investors with season earnings draws to a close, change their attention to economic data this week, especially the April employment report Friday. Investors will scrutinize data jobs for signs of improvement in the labour market.


After a batch of mixed data last week, investors would need to see a solid gain in jobs to believe that sustainable economic growth. NASDAQ rebalance its index may also cause a bit of a stir in the market this week.


But despite the concerns, options investors bought less protection against James Dailey market correction, Manager of fund portfolio of strategy active team in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.


"It is surprising, but paradoxically, the ratio of development-to-call on S & P 500 rose,"towards the end of the week of 18 April and at the beginning of the last week of April"but fell in the last days.".


"We might see some reactions to the overbought conditions according to the number of jobs," he said, but again, it would be a minor withdrawal, perhaps at the level of the test of the 1,340. ?


Other economic data due this week include Manufacturing ISM data and sales interiors of car Monday, the ISM Wednesday service sector data and weekly jobless claims Thursday.


NASDAQ REBALANCING


NASDAQ will be rebalancing its benchmark Nasdaq 100 Monday, which will sink Apple Inc. (AAPL).(O) weighting. Rebalancing affect the relative weight of securities in the index and popular as the PowerShares QQQ (QQQ.) cause index management funds(O) to buy and sell shares to match the new composition.


"Apple shares are likely to see some volatility, but contrary to 10 years ago, hedge funds and traders start trading on this (rebalancing) of the coming weeks, so this will be a huge event on the whole of the market""," said Jack DeGan, head of Harbor Corp. Advisory to Portsmouth(New_Hampshire) investment officer.


The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX (.)(VIX) gauge so-called fear of Wall Street, was relatively low, ending session of Friday under 15, although it was an increase of 0.9% for the day.


"While conditions of being overbought and oversold may remain for some time, as a trader, I feel that this market is simply too complacent." That is why I counsel looking for insurance, but also at this stage of the wave, ride it and do not try to swim against it, said Joe Cusick, a market analyst senior to CVMQ online brokerage firm based in Chicago.


The VIX usually moves inversely with the & S P 500 followed options prices that investors are willing to pay as protection on the price moves underlying stocks.


So far, 324 & S P 500 companies reported profits, of which 73% were higher than the expectations of analysts, according to Thomson Reuters data. In a typical neighbourhood, 62% of companies exceeded estimates.

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